Robert Amsterdam
While the United States-China rivalry has been widely regarded as a zero-sum game due to the intensity of their competition in the global economy, Southeast Asia stands to benefit from it. Finding themselves in a favourable position between two of the world’s strongest superpowers, ASEAN member states should employ a realistic framework focused on diplomacy and neutrality to use their strategic significance for collaboration with the different regional stakeholders.
ASEAN already benefits by tapping into US partnerships in Asia. A prominent example is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), a strategic forum on shared security concerns involving Australia, India and Japan, in addition to the US. Although initially sceptical, ASEAN states have since benefitted in their cooperation with it by pushing to expand the scope of what is defined as security to include their infrastructure needs, particularly when vaccines were needed amid the coronavirus pandemic. The West’s willingness to rapidly provide vaccines to ASEAN nations was largely influenced by their desire to counter the rise of Chinese soft power, as Beijing seized early initiative with their distribution of Sinovac and Sinopharm. The US ultimately overtook China in this regard by providing more effective vaccines.
The US-China rivalry has also benefitted the region in economic terms, with initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) aiming to foster economic collaboration among, and investment into, ASEAN member states and other East Asian nations. The Lower Mekong Initiative is a similar project, encouraging cooperation with respect to water management, education and healthcare in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam.
On the other hand, Chinese economic influence in Southeast Asia is evident most clearly in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), encompassing infrastructure development, as well as the investments and loans required for it. Furthermore, the Asian powerhouse has been a staunch supporter of ASEAN’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), playing a pivotal role in its formation. These economic initiatives have led to Asian economies embracing Beijing’s leadership in regional integration efforts, something reflected in the works of the Mekong-Lancang Cooperation, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
However, there may be concerns about Chinese influence in realm of security cooperation, as demonstrated by their use of territorial waters recognised by others as not belonging to their jurisdiction, in addition to increasingly assertive rhetoric with respect to the island of Taiwan. ASEAN countries could therefore benefit from aligning themselves closer with the US security umbrella, something that does not necessarily entail isolating Beijing. The US’ favourability in this regard is evident in the successful and long-standing security alliance with the Philippines and the strategically aligned commercial cooperation with Singapore. The trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (AUKUS) can benefit ASEAN by sharing intelligence, training militaries and promoting a multilateral rule-based order with the potential to stand-up to agressive rhetoric by others in the future.
The intense rivalry impacts the domestic political landscapes of Southeast Asian countries significantly. While historically Vietnam has been cautious of China due to territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the two nations maintain important economic ties. In fact, China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner. This tightrope has prompted Vietnam to strengthen its military capabilities and attempt to diversify its economic partnerships. The country’s recognition of the risks involved in becoming too dependent on a single foreign actor serves a cautionary tale for other neighbours like Malaysia. Recent engagement by both Hanoi and Kuala Lumpur with the US in the form of economic agreements and security dialogues has garnered support, including domestically by appealing to various factions, from to business communities, who have long pushed to compete with Beijing in the realm of manufacturing investments, to nationalist groups. Therefore, the US-China contest is not a distant external affair but a force influencing the flow of domestic politics in Southeast Asia, shaping how governments and their citizens perceive and react to global shifts in power.
Unfortunately, recent developments in the Indo-Pacific have significantly heightened regional tensions. Taiwan’s commendation of the strengthening ties among the US, Japan, and the Philippines highlights the island’s strategic efforts to secure support against a potential conflict with China. This tripartite strengthening is a direct response to the increased military activities and diplomatic pressures from Beijing. Taiwan, which China sees as a non-negotiable part of its sovereign territory, views the reinforcement of these alliances as a crucial step in ensuring its security and maintaining a balance of power in the region. China, however, disagrees, with its response to these developments being stern and cautionary. During U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit, China explicitly warned the United States against crossing its “red lines” concerning Taiwan and other sensitive issues. These unfolding dynamics present a complex scenario for ASEAN and other regional players navigating this delicate web of alliances and rivalries who will be placed in a difficult position in case of continued deterioration, in which case a proactive diplomatic strategy aimed at de-escalation will be required.
It should be noted that the US and China are not the only strong powers with whom ASEAN cooperates. Increasingly, Japan is emerging as a pivotal player in shaping Southeast Asia’s strategic landscape. Japan’s growing engagement in the region, driven by its own national security interests and desire to counterbalance China’s influence, is marked by proactive diplomatic and economic initiatives. These include substantial investments in infrastructure and technology through projects such as the Partnership for Quality Infrastructure, which aligns with broader regional development goals. Japan has further deepened its security cooperation with ASEAN countries through initiatives like capacity-building programs and joint military exercises, demonstrating its commitment to regional stability. Japan’s strategy certainly does not contradict US efforts; rather, it offers ASEAN an alternative partnership model that emphasises mutual respect and economic cooperation without the heavy political strings often attached to investments by superpowers. As Japan continues to assert a stronger role in Southeast Asia, ASEAN member states can leverage this relationship to enhance their own strategic autonomy and diversify their international alliances. This is a crucial step to deal with unforeseen changes in the regional order, be it a more isolationist approach from the US or a more aggressive one from China. Japan’s role therefore undoubtedly contributes to a more balanced regional power dynamic than one which focuses solely on US and China.
As long as Southeast Asian nations exercise such diversification and remain conscious of legitimate concerns around allying themselves too closely with individual players, the US-China rivalry could bring prosperity to the region. While American presence has long been encouraged by the developed Southeast Asian countries, Chinese presence could now also be beneficial though a nuanced understanding of both risks and opportunity is required to navigate through the various complexities. In terms of diplomacy, ASEAN member states should leverage partnerships with both Washington and Beijing to advance their own interests. Similarly, economic competition between the two has led to increased investment and infrastructure development and could further grow and diversify economies. On the security front, however, ASEAN countries should further their integration into US-established security networks, as defence capacities against potential future threats is crucial.
By adeptly navigating the dynamics of the US-China rivalry, Southeast Asia can position itself as a key player in the geopolitical landscape, fostering stability, prosperity, and resilience in the region.
